Charlie Munger, is a sage and famously the business partner of Warren Buffett, the worlds greatest investor. He has said that he wants to know where he will die, so that he can ensure he never goes there!
We cannot accurately predict where we will breath our last breath, but it seems we can quite accurately predict our risk of dying in the medium term, the next 5-10 years.
That might be considered a rather morbid predictor and one we might rather not be made aware of.
BUT, if we have forewarning, we can do something to influence that risk. The prediction is based on 14 biomarkers, chemicals in the blood. Some improve risk, others increase it. But they reflect the current situation. It seems perfectly sensible to extrapolate these findings to suggest that, if we alter these biomarkers we can reduce our risk. Some of the biomarkers are already used to a degree. Glucose, when raised causes diabetes, and this increases heart disease risk as well as a number of other life altering conditions such as kidney disease. Various markers related to cholesterol are included. We know cholesterol, when raised, increases heart disease risk. Other markets are not commonly tested for, leucine, valine, lactate, isoleucine, phenylalanine, acetoacetate, and GlycA. It is perfectly possible to reduce glucose and cholesterol with diet and medications. Improvement in diet and exercise and stopping smoking are likely to influence other biomarkers too.
It may soon be possible to test people routinely against this bank of biomarkers and give a percentage risk of death in the next 5-10 years. What better inducement would there be to alter lifestyle than being told there is a 70% risk of death within 10 years if nothing is changed.
For those who choose not to improve lifestyle, I suppose there is the benefit of making sure they do not pump too much into a pension and instead spend it on enjoying life!
A metabolic profile of all-cause mortality risk identified in an observational study of 44,168 individuals
Nature Communications volume 10, Article number: 3346 (2019)
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